MAST SECURITY UPDATE: YEMEN AND LIBYA 20/8/15
Date: 20 August 2015
Anti-Houthi forces supported by the Saudi led coalition are striving to reach Sana'a. This is unlikely to be a simple operation as they will be operating in mountainous terrain and meeting increasing resistance. Hodeidah was targeted during the past week by the Saudi led coalition, and the effectiveness of the blockade has resulted in accusations that they are trying to starve the Houthis into submission.
Ben Stewart, General Manager (Singapore) at leading maritime security company MAST, said: "After five months of Saudi led intervention, it is quite likely that a negotiated peace will be achieved in the near future, and a Gulf States supported government will be nominally in control of the country again.
"However, the Houthi movement will not disappear, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have gained strength from the conflict, and the southern separatist movements have been rejuvenated. The peace agreement, when it comes, will not resolve the many political disputes that divide the country."
Aden & Hodeidah
Aden remains commercially quiet with few vessels conducting cargo operations. The Yemeni authorities are advertising it is open for business. The bomb attacks on Hodeidah targeted the fuel storage facilities at the port.
Stewart said: "For now, we advise that commercial shipping remain clear of Houthi controlled ports. It is also unlikely that vessels will be allowed access through the blockade."
Both governments have independently deployed forces to fight ISIS for control of Sirte. There is also a local militia group which has been attacking ISIS positions. This has led to an extremely determined stand by ISIS and for now they remain in control of the town and local area.
The Tobruk Government appears to be finding it difficult to sell crude as proof of ownership and all the contracts are held by the National Oil Corporation in Tripoli.
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